2008...vote..poll

[George Shelps]

AP...likely..voters

Obama...43
McCain...42

[Richard Carnahan]

Post by George Shelps
AP...likely..voters
Obama...43
McCain...42

Nice to know you're still alive and kicking, George. Can't say the
same for your candidate:

AM Polls Show Surprisingly Large Leads for Obama (10-23-08)
New polling this morning from the Big Ten polling consortium and
Quinnipiac University present a view of what the world might look like
if Barack Obama wins in a landslide.

The Big Ten polls have Obama ahead by double digits in ten Midwestern
states: he leads by 10 in Indiana, 11 in Pennsylvania, 12 in Ohio, 13
in Wisconsin and Iowa, 19 in Minnesota, 22 in Michigan, and 29 in
Illinois.

Quinnipiac has Obama ahead by 14 points in Ohio, 13 points in
Pennsylvania, and 5 points in Florida.

The thing to recognize about polls like these is that they may tell us
less about the individual states and more about where the particular
pollsters are calibrating the horse race. The numbers you see in our
current state-by-state projections assume that Obama will ultimately
prevail on election day by about 5 points. But what if Obama were to
win by 10 or more points instead, where several pollsters now have the
race? You'd probably see results which look something like these.

So the best way to regard these numbers is in the same way that you
might have regarded the Pew poll from earlier this week, which had
Obama at a +14 nationally. If you regarded that number as an outlier
-- and I wouldn't blame you one bit if you did -- you should probably
regard these numbers as outliers too. If you regarded that number not
so much as an outlier but as a best-case scenario -- and that's how I
tend to regard it -- you should probably regard these numbers as a
best-case scenario also.

With that said, the trendlines in these polls are interesting.
Quinnipiac has had a slight (1-2 point) Democratic lean this election
cycle, but only in the last month or so have they started to produce
some of these "shock and awe" numbers for Obama. And when the first
round of Big Ten polling was conducted in mid-September, it had not
been particularly favorable to Obama.

[Feuillade]

Nice to know you're still alive and kicking, George.  Can't say the
AM Polls Show Surprisingly Large Leads for Obama (10-23-08)
New polling this morning from the Big Ten polling consortium and
Quinnipiac University present a view of what the world might look like
if Barack Obama wins in a landslide.
The Big Ten polls have Obama ahead by double digits in ten Midwestern
states: he leads by 10 in Indiana, 11 in Pennsylvania, 12 in Ohio, 13
in Wisconsin and Iowa, 19 in Minnesota, 22 in Michigan, and 29 in
Illinois.
Quinnipiac has Obama ahead by 14 points in Ohio, 13 points in
Pennsylvania, and 5 points in Florida.
The thing to recognize about polls like these is that they may tell us
less about the individual states and more about where the particular
pollsters are calibrating the horse race. The numbers you see in our
current state-by-state projections assume that Obama will ultimately
prevail on election day by about 5 points. But what if Obama were to
win by 10 or more points instead, where several pollsters now have the
race? You'd probably see results which look something like these.
So the best way to regard these numbers is in the same way that you
might have regarded the Pew poll from earlier this week, which had
Obama at a +14 nationally. If you regarded that number as an outlier
-- and I wouldn't blame you one bit if you did -- you should probably
regard these numbers as outliers too. If you regarded that number not
so much as an outlier but as a best-case scenario -- and that's how I
tend to regard it -- you should probably regard these numbers as a
best-case scenario also.
With that said, the trendlines in these polls are interesting.
Quinnipiac has had a slight (1-2 point) Democratic lean this election
cycle, but only in the last month or so have they started to produce
some of these "shock and awe" numbers for Obama. And when the first
round of Big Ten polling was conducted in mid-September, it had not
been particularly favorable to Obama.

Forget about numbers from polls. Concentrate on the big picture:

No blue state is in play. Lots of red states are in play.

All Obama has to do is win the states that Kerry won last time and
pick up New Mexico and he wins. He's pretty much a lock to do that.

McCain has to win all the states that Bush won last time as well as
pick up some blue states. I don't see that happening.

If you look at the electoral map, check out the battleground states
and try to get McCain to 270 electoral votes. It's pretty much
impossible.

There are still some days to go. Anything is possible. But right now
it looks like Obama will win and win convincingly. He will get more
than 300 electoral votes and McCain will get less than 200.

Obama will win the following states:

Ohio
Florida
Michigan
New Mexico
Virginia

And he has an outside shot at North Carolina.

Of the states that are in play, McCain might get New Hamsphire. But
even that's dicey.

All indicators point towards an Obama landslide on the level of FDR in
1932 and LBJ in 1964 -- with a very real possibility of what the Wall
Street Journal tremblingly referred to as a "liberal supermajority" in
Congress.

Tom Moran