Even More Shocking Than a McCain Victory!

[Christopher Snowden]

Tuesday's results aren't going to shock anybody but Mr. Zogby. On the
other hand, the results of a 1926 EXHIBITORS HERALD survey might
startle a few a.m.c. readers.

The survey asked exhibitors around the country to list the ten films
that had performed best for them at the box office during the year
that ended November 15, 1926. The results were then published, showing
which films appeared on the most lists.

Not only did THE GOLD RUSH *not* place in the top ten... it didn't
even place in the top 25. Even more surprising was the comedian whose
film placed tenth in the survey, named by more than twice as many
exhibitors as had named THE GOLD RUSH. (No, it wasn't Harold Lloyd's
THE FRESHMAN.)

The results are at http://www.TheSilentMovieBlog.blog.com !

[David Totheroh]

Post by Christopher Snowden
Tuesday's results aren't going to shock anybody but Mr. Zogby. On the
other hand, the results of a 1926 EXHIBITORS HERALD survey might
startle a few a.m.c. readers.
The survey asked exhibitors around the country to list the ten films
that had performed best for them at the box office during the year
that ended November 15, 1926. The results were then published, showing
which films appeared on the most lists.
Not only did THE GOLD RUSH *not* place in the top ten... it didn't
even place in the top 25. Even more surprising was the comedian whose
film placed tenth in the survey, named by more than twice as many
exhibitors as had named THE GOLD RUSH. (No, it wasn't Harold Lloyd's
THE FRESHMAN.)
The results are athttp://www.TheSilentMovieBlog.blog.com!

Since this is an exhibitors poll, I'd bet rental and other initial
costs colored how they viewed b.o. performance. Also, not unlike
today, there was that character assassination 'Milk Fund' campaign
going on at the time. Middle America were suckers for that kind of
stuff then, too. If they'd heard any of the rumors I've heard about
Syd I wonder if Charley's Aunt would've ended up below Charlie.

Anyhow, I'd bet the Exhibitor's Herald poll wasn't as flawed as Zogby
(and wouldn't ya know Shelps is locked into Drudge):

Zogby Trick or Treat
Friday 31 October 2008

by: Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight.com


Zogby International
Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby
poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.

There are a couple of significant problems with this.

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of
interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely
volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because
he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting
process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually
don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading
indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two
days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took
place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is
significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on
Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for
Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these
numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't
move much).

[c***@ttu.edu]

Post by Christopher Snowden
Tuesday's results aren't going to shock anybody but Mr. Zogby. On the
other hand, the results of a 1926 EXHIBITORS HERALD survey might
startle a few a.m.c. readers.
The survey asked exhibitors around the country to list the ten films
that had performed best for them at the box office during the year
that ended November 15, 1926. The results were then published, showing
which films appeared on the most lists.
Not only did THE GOLD RUSH *not* place in the top ten... it didn't
even place in the top 25. Even more surprising was the comedian whose
film placed tenth in the survey, named by more than twice as many
exhibitors as had named THE GOLD RUSH. (No, it wasn't Harold Lloyd's
THE FRESHMAN.)
The results are athttp://www.TheSilentMovieBlog.blog.com!

Part of the reason why _Charlie's Aunt_ placed so high was because of
its
prior success on the stage. Audiences were drawn by the familiar
title rather
than by the lead actor's name.

I think Shush posted some information about this earlier, and in that
disucssion
someone pointed out that Chaplin's films tended to do their best
business in
first-run urban venues. According to a paper read at the Chaplin
conference
in London several years ago, the same patten held true in Germany.
German
audiences as a whole preferred German films;Chaplin's did their best
business
in urban theaters.

What is interesting is that _Go West_ places well below both Lloyd's
and Chaplin's
offerings.

Connie K.